Article

by Hannah Moore

May 4, 2015—Climate change may accelerate animal extinction more than imagined. According to a Science journal study published Thursday, climate change will cause the extinction of 1 in 6 species if no action is taken to reverse the pattern.

As dire as this finding is, other experts say the results could be worse than predicted. John J. Weins, evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona, said that the number of extinct species could be 2 to 3 times higher, the New York Times reports.

This finding comes just months before a UN climate discussion with 200 governments in Paris that will encourage a deal to globally cut carbon emissions, according to The Guardian.

Aside from being a tragedy, the extinction could have serious consequences for people and the ecosystem, according to conservationists.

Many creatures in New Zealand, Australia and South America are not found elsewhere in the world, so the species in these regions would be hit harder than those in North America and Europe. The smaller land masses of Australia and New Zealand would also make it harder for the species to cope with the rising temperatures.

Since the Industrial Revolution, global warming has increased the Earth’s surface temperature by about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit. In response, species change their location ranges. A 2003 study analyzed more than 1,700 plant and animal species. It found that their average range shift was 3.8 miles per decade toward the planet’s poles.

Climate researchers predict that if carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases remain on the rise, the planet’s temperature could warm up to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. The change in climate could make it difficult for species to find suitable habitats.

This is not the first study to predict how many species extinction will be wiped out due to global warming. Hundreds of such analyses have been published throughout the years. Some have predicted that 50 percent will be extinct, while other studies say that the extinction will be minimal.

The studies vary greatly because they focus on different species in different areas of the globe, from Canada butterflies to Amazon plants. Some studies predict a hotter planet temperature than others.

Any deal resulting from the upcoming UN climate summit is not expected to be enough to slow warming to 2C—the safe level that world leaders are aiming for—but carbon emission cuts could be strengthened later to meet this level.